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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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